Blair's Irish Ayes Are Smiling

Warmongering Blair's future hangs in the balance as he waits in the wings for the top EU job. All eyes are on Ireland, with Cornered Cameron set to be forced out of the closet if the Irish are bullied into voting 'yes' to the despised EU treaty.

The people of the Republic have already sent a resounding 'no' to Brussels. Now they've been forced to do it all over again with a few carrots dangled over the same EU treaty. The UK's future and that of Europe hangs on the Irish vote.

The first real test of the new PM-in waiting's leadership will come as the Tory conference kicks in, with all eyes on how Cameron keeps a lid on a Eurosceptic backlash after today's likely Irish 'yes' vote.

Cameron made referendum promises pinning his hopes on the Irish voting 'no' again. But times have changed in the Emerald Isle. The false boom of the economy lies in tatters.

The dirty tricks Euro 'yes' campaign makes Mandy more like Saint Mary. Ryanair boss, O'Leary, has admitted he only funded the 'yes' campaign to get his hands on Aer Lingus. Voters are ripe pickings for the EU con. Now the Irish look set to be blackmailed into submission.

The Tories old wound of Europe is set to open up. Dave will have to come clean sometime with a cry of EU - you're driving me crazy.

The Orange Party doesn't buy into the Euro hype, eurosceptic but not euroseptic. Only EU cronies who have the most to gain from the Euro gravy train are on side. But increasing the burdening Brussels bureaucracy is only part of the problem.

What is at stake is democracy, with a bunch of unelected EU commission civil service types pretending they are a government. Blair is set to be president of an all powerful faceless facade, riding rough shod over sovereign domestic, foreign and military policy with a record for a "taste for war".

The spectre of the scary 'right-wing' brands anyone who doesn't fit into their cosy EU world. But the right-wing does not have sole rights over euroscepticism. The far left is just as much against the new EU treaty, so too the 'decent' left. As Sholto Byrnes points out in the Indy, that right-wing tag has stifled real debate on this issue for too long.

Mummy Merkel, now free to move with the centre right, has scuppered plans for Turkey to join the club. But Germany sneaked in a quick signing just before the elections, much to Mummy's delight. Along with Short-arse Sarkozy they are Europe - pushing their national interest through the Brussels back door, leaving windswept Brits to tag along by the coat tails.

The EU doesn't do no. Like naughty children, the people of the ROI had a slap on the wrist to do it again until they got it right. Only Poland and the Czech Republic are left to be blackmailed and bullied into submission.

Here New Labour is singing to the tune of His Master's Voice, breaking their 2005 election manifesto promise to hold a referendum. But their lies and betrayal was backed up by Euro-boy Clegg and his unforgivable peers who sold their soul to an EU superstate and pushed the hated treaty through parliament.

An ever expanding EU superstate is way past its original 1975 sell-by date. The EU should be about trade not laws imposed from Brussels with over arching powers over foreign and military policy, presided over by a war criminal massaging his ego and bank balance.

In the squalid world of power politics, all roads lead back to Blair. The Orange Party has long believed 'Boney' Blair has been biding his time until the plumb job was up for grabs. EU leaders pick the president and Blair is set to be nominated if the ROI referendum backs the treaty. Born-again Blair at the helm of one of the most powerful posts on the planet is a recipe for disaster.

The one ray of hope is that Blair cannot formally take up the almighty position of master of a new Empire, until all 27 EU countries have ratified. When it comes to Blair, Hague isn't vague, so what will Will have to say?

Mandy's life-long quest to install pal Blair as president of a new EU superstate will draw to a close. Billy-no-mates Brown has outlived his usefulness to the Gang of Four. With Blair's feet under EU top table, will Mandy drop Liability Brown like a ton of bricks after his skullduggery to prop-up Brown and skip off back to Brussels to join him?

Where does that leave Dave's promise of a EU referendum? Was there, as Oborne hinted, a squalid pact brokered between Cameron and Blair - with Cameron doing nothing to damage Blair's EU chances, while Blair agreed not to speak out against Mr Ambition's plan to get into No 10?

So what does Dave have in mind when here, parliament has already ratified the treaty, thanks but no thanks to Euro-boy Clegg? If, as PM, he holds a referendum and the country gives it the thumbs down, then he's bound to get it in the neck from the Euro Club.

New Labour will be lovin' it, painting the Tories as a Party in disarray, divided once again on Europe, with that 'right-wing' bogeyman crawling out of the woodwork.

It's all up for grabs, with Dave earlier wriggling: "If the Germans ratify, if the Poles ratify, if the Czechs ratify, if the Irish vote 'Yes' to the Treaty, then a new set of circumstances apply, and I will address those at the time."

In 2004 Blair gave one of his empty promises that when it came to all things EU it was time to "let the people have the final say". But then he could talk the talk and walk the walk with promises of all things to all men and the sisterhood.

The Orange Party got a tad tired taking pot shots at dead ducks in Brighton. In Manchester, after the Irish vote, Cameron has a chance to deliver real, radical, bold alternatives to the failed policies of a fag-end government and its lame duck leader and prove he's not just an heir to Blair and another slick, snake-oil salesman.

Cameron will have to come out of the closet pretty sharp or the Old Etonian will find it's grim up North.

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It's Brown Wot Lost It!

Murdoch's Sun has come out to shine on the Tories with an election: "Bye Bye Gordon". "After 12 long years in power, this Government has lost its way. Now it's lost The Sun's support too," screams the Sun. What a way to rain on Brown's parade.

The mighty Murdoch empire in the shape of the Sun is throwing its weight behind the Conservatives with an editorial which delivers a damning indictment of New Labour failures.

The Orange Party could not agree more, pointing out earlier today the 'underdogs' biteback would be toothless. Now the underdogs are dead dogs without the Sun to suck up to.

Instead of coming clean on a decade of failed policies, promising to put things right, deluded Brown tried in on with the 'underdogs' line, attacked the Tories and left weary delegates with a taste of his usual arrogance and petulance.

The Sun helped win it for Blair in '97 and lose it for Kinnock in '92 with the headline: "If Kinnock wins today will the last one to leave Britain, please turn off the lights", prompting the headline the following day: "It's the Sun Wot Won It". The Sun is hoping for a hat-trick.

The fag-end government with a doomed dead man walking has nothing left but a copy of the Sun for comfort. New Labour has lost it. Get over it.

Murdoch's support for Cameron's Tories should come as no surprise, only the timing, supposedly months away from the election. The Dirty Digger has been pulling back since pal Blair left the fold.

The Sun has been banging the drum for Dave since last year's Tory conference. Flashback: October 2, 2008: The Sun Shines On Cameron

The Sun has captured the public mood. Murdoch backs winners not losers. The Mighty Mogul is playing follow the reader, supporting the Party and person wot sells newspapers.

Now Cameron has to come off the fence. Talk the talk, walk the walk, stand - and deliver a real alternative.

Hat tip: Nick Robinson who very kindly held up the Sun front page for all the world to see - on the BBC 10 o'clock news. So that's Robinson and Marr in the reservoir dog's dog-house.

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'Underdogs' Toothless Biteback

The fightback to paint New Labour and its lamentable leader as underdogs is well underway. In the dark, dodgy world of dirty tricks, it's difficult to separate truth from fiction, leaving only a cynical synopsis of the scenarios.

A fag-end government with a doomed dead man walking has nothing left but a worn-out comfort blanket. The 'underdogs' against the nasty Tories. Politics played out as soap opera with a rerun of the old class of '97.

New Labour has lost it. Get over it. No one in their right mind buys into the conference hype. The mood at Brighton on the Rocks is dire, despite magical Mandy's sprinkling of panto fairy dust to lift the unfaithful out of the depths of despair.

New Labour's election strategy is a fightback sure, but not as we know it. Portraying Liability Brown and the Party as underdogs has been a long term strategy. Now it's time for unelected and unaccountable Mandy to put theory into practice.

A new opinion poll shows New Labour slumping third behind LibDems, down in the doldrums for the first time since 1982. Things can only get better?

Bloomberg has revealed an election timetable set up for May 6, with a “General Election Handbook Part 1,” issued to candidates and campaign chiefs. That date's likely but isn't set in stone. Events have a nasty habit of getting in the way.

What is kicking around but under wraps is a short term strategy for a snap election. Ominously that “Short Campaign Book” has not been published.

Ministers and hangers-on are now totally obsessed about that election and in total denial about the inevitable outcome, scurrying around, feathering their nests as the rats desert the sinking ship, when they should be out there doing what they're paid to do - 'govern'.

That leaves underworld spinners and attack dogs to fight the corner for the 'underdogs' from the undergrowth, with Battered Brown the Unique Selling Point.

Dreaming up rehashed policy promises they won't have to keep for the down-trodden masses, leaves the promise of a Party for the underdogs by the underdogs. Not like them Tory Toffs. Neat trick, eh?

Was Marr's pill popping question to Beleaguered Brown such an outrageous affront as Mandy and Big Al would have us believe? Or was it all part of that underdog fightback?

The Sunday spectacle was branded an "extreme right-wing" conspiracy putting the frighteners up everyone. Yet the guy who made the original allegation is an historian and a bit of a green liberal.

But it does leave it wide open for Marr to grill Cameron on his alleged drugs old history. What Tory sleaze stories Mandy has in this back pocket, to capture the 'narrative' and the media, Dark Lord only knows.

On health grounds, Beaten Brown has the ideal 'get out of jail free card' and can slip off into oblivion anytime to save the world.

Much to the relief of the Party and fed-up voters, that may even earn a few Brownie points in the polls.

On the day of yet another of Boring Brown's big fightback speeches - up pops a strange story that he's the victim of hate mail - a nasty little attack targeted by a poison pen letter writer which makes you feel sorry for him. Well almost.

This will be a 'fightback' speech to save Battered Brown's skin, not a speech for voters. The deluded leader is an underdog but also a dead dog. No amount of spinning will turn him around.

With steely Sarah to guide him on stage, the scene is set for a last-ditch speech to wearing, despairing delegates, cameras and sound-bites.

What is missing from the jigsaw is the one who can take over the helm. So who is being groomed to step into his shoes?

Up to the mark steps political underdog, Ed Miliband - better looking than banana boy David, a solid background at the treasury, now co-ordinating the campaign. Wet and wet behind the ears but clean of the expenses scandal, with Mandy behind him, that boy will go far. The question is when and how.

Cameron's conservatives are romping along nicely but still have a lot of romping to do before they romp home. With the Irish likely to bullied and blackmailed into a 'yes' vote as the Tory conference kicks in, Cameron has his own cross to bare.

Dave will have to come out of the closet sometime about his promise of an EU referendum. A gift for New Labour.

The heir-to-Blair can walk the walk and talk the talk. But time for talking and promising all things to all men is drawing to a close. The Tories old wound of Europe could be opened up with a little help from his 'friends'.

You've got to hand it to Mandy. He's The Master. Underdogs, sure but this is more about the future of his pet 'social democrat' project cooked up by the Gang of Four now falling apart around his ears. He's up for a fight - but will he again drag what used to be a Labour Party down with him?

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Brown's Depressing Interview

Cheeky Andrew Marr has popped the question - is Brown popping pills? The grilling brought a petulant reply from the prime minister and caused some consternation from the commentariat.

Brighton on the Rocks is turning into one helluva leaving party, with a Party that has lost the will to live. New Labour has lost it. Get over it. What Bumbling Brown was droning on about in his BBC interview, no one knows or even cares.

A fag-end government with a lame duck leader has lost the right to be listened to. All Beeb viewers were left with are lingering doubts over the health of the lamentable leader and why he looked so pale and sweaty.

Commentators have been quick to ask whether it was right to pose the question: Is Brown popping the happy pills? Too right it was.

He wasn't elected but Brown is the prime minister. The guy's nominally in charge of the country. Decisions over sending troops to their deaths in the Afghan killing fields and wrecking the economy need a clear head, not a clouded judgement.

If Brown is on anti-depressants that could affect his judgement then voters have a right to know.

The Orange Party's gripe is that Marr's question was too woolly and could have been more tightly framed. Brown's health may well be deteriorating but he's still a very canny politician with years of ducking and diving under his belt.

Casting aside any of his concerns about "innate liberal bias" at the BBC, Marr asked Brown: "A lot of people in this country use prescription painkillers and pills to help them get through. Are you one of them?"

Judging from Brown’s reaction, that question wasn't in the script.

Brown replied: "No. I think this is the sort of questioning which is all too often entering the lexicon of British politics" and went on to deftly duck the main question and deny his sight is deteriorating.

Rumours have been swirling around Westminster since blogger and journalist, John Ward, claimed Brown is suffering from obsessive compulsive disorder as well as drug-controlled depression.

The Orange Party posted at the time this raised doubts whether deluded Brown is fit for purpose.

There's been growing MSM speculation over the PM's health since Matthew Norman raised it in The Independent. The rumour should have been dealt with clearly. Clearly it wasn't.

When the eyesight question was put to Brown during a US interview on NBC's Nightly News, the UK media seized on it with glee. When a similar issue is raised in Brown's own back yard, there's some shock horror.

Health aside, generally it's the performance what matters - and that was depressing. Arrogance and petulance came to the fore.

Despite grandstanding on the world stage, all that will be remembered is the Obama snub in the UN kitchen. While back in Blighty, Brown is propping up his crony government with a Scotland scandal whitewash.

Once again life's little irritants just keep getting in the way of 'getting on with the job'.

But a PM and Party leader who cannot get a political policy point across and cannot connect with voters is a dead man walking.

With suicide laws now a bit befuddled, Martin Ivens over at the Sunday Times asks: Will Mandy push Gordon over the cliff?

Tired, pale and sweaty despite the slap, no wonder no decision has been made to put up Brown against Cameron in a live car-crash TV debate. Tricky Dicky Nixon and smoothy chops Kennedy all over again.

Should Cameron be asked a similar question? It's doubtful Dave's on anti-depressants. He's on too much of a voter high.

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