Is McCain Planning An October Surprise?

Much of the media think the US election is a done deal. Politicians and newspapers are falling over themselves to throw their weight behind Obama. This may be the new Independence Day for liberal America but both sides know it's not over until the fat lady sings and McCain could spring an October surprise. 

The misguided line taken by much of the Obama supporting media was encapsulated well in yesterday's Guardian. Obama is riding high in the polls, his campaign fund is breaking all records and to top it all, Colin Powell has final come out in support. Victory is now a forgone conclusion, champagne has been ordered and the party invites sent out. 

Sorry to be a party pooper, but all three gleefully seized on by the media were not seized upon by the Obama campaign team. All three show Obama's weaknesses. His campaign team know this and were quick to play them down. 

A lead of 5.8% as shown by the RCP average does not spell victory with 14 days still to go. Al Gore was down by 5.5 points on October 21. Still down on election day, Gore went on to win the election but lost the presidency. By this polling day, it could well be neck and neck.

Swollen campaign funds is not a sign of support, it just means Obama has been much sharper. While both camps signed up to use public funds for the campaign, Obama tore up the agreement and used private funding sources instead, something Obama has admitted, putting him at a huge financial advantage. 

Obama is already on dodgy ground over his private funding which does not come under the same close scrutiny as using taxpayers cash, except funds which are suspected of coming from outside the US. 

Powell's support was greeted with a strange sort of glee by the media. Powell is a dove not a hawk but, as Bush's poodle, he helped take the US and UK to war on a lie and lied to the UN over Saddam's weapons of mass destruction, based on dodgy photographs, discredited yellowcake and a debunked Iraq dossier. 

His support for Obama was seen by some as a black American brotherhood, something Obama has been very careful to avoid and that may galvanise some support for the Republicans. 

Obama's task between now and November 4 is to keep his cool, drive home the simple and consistent message of change and hope and make these remaining undecided voters comfortable with his background. 

Obama has a few tricks up his sleeve to assuage voters, like the publicity stunt taking time out to "visit his sick grandmother" in Hawaii.

McCain of course will try to do the opposite. Make voters feel uneasy and uncomfortable, while casting himself as a safe and trusted pair of hands. This has been drip-fed, ratcheted up and ratcheted down throughout the campaign.

Until recently, it suited McCain to be the underdog. After all, there are two in this Republican marriage and Palin is the attack dog. 

The line of attack on links with ex-domestic terrorist, William Ayers, and other dodgy characters from Obama's Chicago past, may have run their course. 

There's still some mileage left in his links with black power pastor, Jeremiah Wright, but voters can be turned off by too much negative campaigning so close to the finishing line. 

McCain's October surprise will focus on Obama's inexperience, credibility and background, probably all three rolled into one. Sowing the seeds of that unease with the millions of undecided voters to make them throw a wobbly before they finally have to make up their minds. 

What will McCain use as the hook to hang this on? The McCain team is not giving the game away but it may have something to do with Berg's lawsuit over Obama's citizenship which is currently being blocked by Obama and the DNC.

Many think and hope it's a done deal and this election's outcome is set in stone. Both Obama and McCain know that nothing could be further from the truth. 

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Heart Attack Hot Air On Spinning Sunday

Desperate efforts to spin its way out of the busted economy moved up a gear as a government planted 'positive' story over heart treatment popped up on the radar. The ink wasn't dry on the 'tough' immigration line, before today's reassurances for heart attack victims.

The Orange Party hadn't even chance to check out the Sunday papers or check up on the BBC when it posted: "next up, expect a couple of planted feel-good stories to reassure voters over public services." Government spin doctors didn't disappoint. 

BBC On-Line news reports: "Hundreds of lives will be saved every year with the introduction of a "gold standard" treatment for heart attacks across England, say ministers." 

That's "government ministers", "gold standard", "heart attacks" and "saved" all in one sentence. Quite an achievement. even for those used to writing prosaic prose and free puffs dressed up as news stories. And the BBC was not alone. 

The free puff and the line to reinforce public services are safe, centres on the use of the medically invasive balloon and tube angioplasty used for some heart attack victims. As usual, the devil is in the detail. 

Apparently, in some areas of the country this life saving angioplasty is already widely available but not in others. So this is more about trying to wriggle out of the despicable practice of the post code lottery rather than good medical practice. And it gets better, or worse, depending on your point of view.

"It is envisaged that regional cardiac networks... working in a specialist centre ... rush patients to the specialist centre, bypassing more local district general hospitals on the way."

By-pass (sic) local hospitals to the new super regional centres as part of the Darzi NHS privatisation plan and that means you can justify the closure of local hospital that much easier. 

The only criteria for medical treatment should be on medial need, regardless of where you live, who you are, or what it costs. 

Nor should someone's medical condition be used as yet another government propaganda tool which will force hospitals to look over their shoulders again to achieve unrealistic government targets. 

Only yesterday the Brown spin tried to use immigration to take the heat out of the busted real economy. Today it's health. What next? Well, schools secretary, Ed Balls, is missing out on the limelight. Troop withdrawal from Iraq? The UN mandate for occupation runs out at the end of the year.

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US Snubs Brown To Deal With Their Economy

Brown's big talk of meeting "financial and government leaders", has fallen on deaf ears, as US politicians and finance chiefs snub him, to concentrate on the real task of digging themselves out of the hole of a looming economic meltdown. 

Instead, Brown is attending a UN summit on the issue of the "Millennium Development Goals" and attending a celebrity fund-raising dinner, as aides try to fix up a hurried meeting for tomorrow.

US treasury secretary, Hank Paulson, has already turned down a request to meet the prime minister. President Bush is due to address the nation on a $700 billion rescue plan and presidential hopefuls, McCain and Obama are to meet with Bush to hammer out a cross-party emergency bail-out package.

Brown, as chancellor and now prime minister, is directly responsible for the current economic mess in the UK, when he blindly followed the US lead, to allow greedy banks to make fat profits with little regulation. 

Meanwhile, as Brown struts around the UN stage, posing for celebrity snaps with his wife, people here are left wondering how the government is going to tackle the imminent threat of rampant inflation, looming unemployment and the nightmare of burgeoning debt.

The BBC's Nick Robinson observes: "The best Gordon Brown can hope for on this trip is a dialogue which produces an appetite for reform in the future."

Instead of empty gestures and more mosquito nets for Africa, Brown should stick to the issues which directly affect people back home and leave his pet project of a global dialogue for another day.

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Death By Numbers in Afghanistan

A milestone has been reached in the 'number of serviceman killed in Afghanistan'. Duly reported by the BBC and the newspapers of record. Reduced to a tally of the dead. Death by numbers. 

Why do we just accept it? Our servicemen continue to die, along with hundreds of civilians in far off lands. We care about the dead, but does anyone care about the wars anymore?

For nearly half a century after Suez, any idea of UK interventionism was not an option. Until recently. Liberal interventionism came back with New Labour and Blair. But only if the US said it was OK. And only if Blair "knew it was right". 

Taking a nation to war is bad enough when the State is threatened directly. The only justification for war must be if the UK is directly under threat by a foreign state. It hasn't been since 1939. 

Pull all operational troops out of Afghanistan. Nobody seems to know why we are there. Fighting Tommy Tailban. But who are they? Fundamental Islamists, sure - but also mainly Afghans. 

The British were there in Victorian times fighting somebody or other. Then the Soviets tried and beat a hasty retreat. Now it's us (again) and the US. What are we doing there? Well, certainly protecting the poppy fields from destruction. After all, more than 90 percent of the UK heroin comes from these fields. Protect the poppy with pride!

And pull all operational troops out of Iraq. See what happens? The tribal groups will realign and eventually federate. Look at the Kurds. They seem to be peacefully getting on with it. Baghdad is a problem. And here the solution is for a UN agreed creation of an independent city state. With a UN peace-keeping force.

We don't have an Empire anymore! Heroin from the poppy fields of Afghanistan is a really bad thing. No general worth his pips would try to fight two wars on two fronts. We just don't have the money to wage any wars let alone two at once. 

Think of the money we'd save. Billions of pounds. We're a tiny island off northern Europe for goodness sake, not a world superpower. We could use some of the cash to help pay off our increasing national debt (and maybe use some for schools and hospitals and staff) and to treat our servicemen with the dignity they deserve. 

And why doesn't some one ask what are all our troops doing stationed in Germany (don't they know the Cold War has ended). And in southern Cyprus (since when have the friendly Turkish EU wannabes been a threat?).

It is time for a reality check. Realise that we can't afford billion of pounds fighting wars in foreign countries. Wake up to the fact that Muslims really don't like western Christians invading their country. Liberal interventionism shouldn't be on the whim of a UK prime minister because he thinks he's right. There's a place for liberal interventionism but only with full UN approval and only then if the UK parliament and people agree. 

The problem is Brown is simply carrying on with Blair's New Labour policy. They've dug themselves into a hole and can't get out. You'd have to do something with all the troops, the sailors and the aircrew and vast army of MoD staff. And there's the huge defence, catering and supply contracts. Pulling out will cost a lot of very rich and powerful people an awful lot of money. 

This isn't anti-war. This is just common sense. 

Meanwhile you can now make up our own news report. "Another British serviceman has been killed in____ This brings the total number of UK troops killed since 2001 to ____. 

Death by numbers.

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Don't Mention The War!

Does anyone care about the war in Afghanistan? Has it all been brushed under the carpet by the MoD war-time propaganda machine? Or is it that we just accept it while our servicemen continue to die, along with hundreds of civilians, in far off lands. 

In 1956,  Eden, the UK prime minister, took this country to war on a lie. The US said stop it. Eden paid the price and resigned in disgrace. The British Empire ended after Suez. And for nearly half a century, any idea of UK 'interventionism' died with it. Liberal interventionism came back with New Labour and Blair. But only if the US said it was OK. And only if Blair "knew it was right". 

Wars are never pleasant. People get killed. Taking a nation to war is bad enough when the State is threatened directly. The only justification for war must be if the UK is directly under threat by a foreign state. It hasn't been since 1939. 

Pull all operational troops out of Iraq. See what happens? The tribal groups will realign and eventually federate. Look at the Kurds. They seem to be very peacefully getting on with it. Baghdad is a problem. And here the solution is for a UN agreed creation of an independent city state. With a UN peace-keeping force.

And then there's Afghanistan. Strange because nobody seems to know why we are there and exactly what we are doing. Fighting Tommy Tailban? But who are they? Fundamental Islamists, sure but also many Afghans. It's their country not ours. Us British were there years ago fighting somebody or other (they even made it into a film - Carry On Up The Khyber). Then the Soviets tried - and beat a hasty retreat. And now it's us again and the US. 

What are we doing there? Well, certainly protecting the poppy fields from destruction. After all, more than 90 percent of the UK heroin comes from these fields. Protect the poppy with pride!

Just pull out of here too. We don't have an Empire anymore! Heroin from the poppy fields of Afghanistan is a really bad thing. No general worth his pips would try to fight two wars on two fronts. We just don't have the money to wage any wars let alone two at once. 

Think of the money we'd save. Billions of pounds. We're a tiny island off northern Europe for goodness sake not a world superpower. We could use some of the cash to help pay off our increasing national debt (and maybe use some for schools and hospitals and staff). 

And come to think of it why doesn't someone ask what are all our troops doing stationed in Germany (don't they know the Cold War has ended). And in southern Cyprus - since when have the friendly Turkish EU wannabes been a threat?

It is time for a reality check. Realise that we can't afford billion of pounds fighting wars in foreign countries. Wake up to the fact that Muslims really don't like western Christians invading their country. Liberal interventionism shouldn't be on the whim of a UK prime minister because he thinks he's right. There's a place for liberal interventionism but only with full UN approval and only then if the UK Parliament and people agree. 

The problem is Brown is simply carrying on with a New Labour policy. They've dug themselves into a hole and can't get out. You'd have to do something with all the troops, the sailors and the airmen and vast army of MoD staff. And there's the huge defence, catering and supply contracts.  Pulling out will cost a lot of very rich and powerful people an awful lot of money. 

This isn't anti-war. This is just common sense. 

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