Showing posts with label printing money. Show all posts
Showing posts with label printing money. Show all posts

Thursday, March 05, 2009

Printing Money Is A Bad Roll Of The Dice

The government is pinning its hopes on a last, bad roll of the dice to dig itself out of its economic hell-hole, as the Bank of England starts the dangerous and disreputable gamble of 'printing money'. Spun as 'a good thing', this is a short term fix to get the government over the hill of the next election. The wheelbarrow of cash is teetering on a slippery slope. 

The Orange Party is in a long queue of people happy to give sound, realistic advice on how to get out of this hopeless mess without having to resort to borrowing billions and printing money, then spending it all like there is no tomorrow. But for the government of course, there is no tomorrow. 

Playing economic politics with the country and people's livelihoods is a despicable act, leaving others to pick up the tab and clear up the mess. 

The government is drinking at the last chance saloon. Printing money is an admission of failure which will get it off the hook, while a deluded Brown and his hapless chancellor lose control of the country's finances and their senses. 

Floundering in economic cloud cuckoo land, their only way out is a barrow full of banknotes, expanding the money supply with a boost of £75 billion now rising up to £150 billion later. 

The country is hopelessly in debt and borrowing is at a record high. But the government still wants to 'print money' to fund a reckless borrowing binge and ludicrous public spending spree. 

Any government which has to resort to 'printing money' is on its beam ends, with the threat of a new bout of inflation always lurking round the corner.

With the borrowing debt set to run into trillions of pounds, the abhorrent and disreputable 'printing money' option, euphemistically called 'quantitative easing'  is the only bullet left in its depleted armoury.   

Another last roll of the dice came from the Bank of England today with another cut in interest rates down to 0.5%, another blow for savers that won't make a jot of difference in the real world.

The Bank has already tried slashing the official rate with the most aggressive reduction in borrowing costs in 100 years to try to head off a full-blown economic depression.

Now the Bank is planning 'quantitative easing' but inflation will evaporate in coming months. In fact the new fear is deflation. The real economy in the real world of the RPI is already deflating. Printing wads of banknotes, though not literally, will just make matters worse. 

It is a short-sighted and short-term way to reflate but will help get the government of the hook until after the general election. 

In the last few months successive cuts to the bank rate failed to get the economy moving. For Brown and the government the solution is even more reckless, short-term fixes. 

It's clear the government hasn't a cat in hell's chance of funding its ridiculous borrowing binge but printing money is fraught with long-term dangers.

Anyone who takes a scant look at economic history can see that. 

Japan tried and failed. Printing money had disastrous effects in Weimar Germany in the Twenties, leading to rampant inflation, the Nazi Party and people needing wheelbarrows to carry the cash to buy a loaf of bread. 

In modern-day Zimbabwe, Mugabbe prints worthless banknotes. Debt ridden Latin-American countries became a laughing stock, as they tried the same trick. 

Brown's government will be the laughing stock of the world. 

Printing money is a recipe for disaster but it does boost the money supply and inject liquidity into the economy in the short-term. 

Slashing interest rates and printing more money is a quick fix which would release a flood of extra cash but there's no guarantee that would find its way through to the real economy as businesses and families tighten their belts and hang on to any cash to pay off debts.

Printing money is exactly the option used by Obama's new administration faced with a trillion dollar debt, to fool some of the people some of the time. The US Fed tried the trick but with little effect.

Even if it does do the job it could dilute the value of sterling and kick-off inflation, needing higher interest rates to control it. 

The hope is that when the Bank of England decides enough is enough, it can act independently from government interference to make the right decisions on economic not political grounds.

But the trick is knowing when enough is enough and that's a hopeless guessing game.

Lies, deceit and spin go hand in hand with the New Labour project but it's in the death throes of the disaster of the economy where the public feel it most. 

Soon a new government will have to confront the underlying problems in the economy. 

Even the combined might of ex-chancellor Ken Clarke and economic oracle Vince Cable will be hard-pressed to turn the country around.

Picture: Guys and Dolls, Luck Be A Lady Tonight. Illustration, Jody Hewgill

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Thursday, February 19, 2009

Printing Money Is A Recipe For Disaster

Conflicting inflation figures left some confused. The borrowing debt is set to run into trillions of pounds. The government is set to start 'printing money'. Brown is a victim of his own economic spin. His past false boom years are coming back to haunt him. 

Lies, deceit and spin go hand in hand with the New Labour project but it's in the death throes of the disaster of the economy where the public feel it most. 

Brown and Downing Street have tried every trick in the book to play down the crisis because to admit the truth is to admit past mistakes. There are signs the 'narrative' is changing but it's too late for all that now. 

The real economy is already deflating. Printing money will just make matters worse.

The Retail Price Index (RPI) which includes housing costs is at a 49-year low of 0.1%. But the government's preferred Consumer Price Index (CPI) is stuck at 3%. The RPI has taken a dive because of falling property prices and sinking mortgage interest payments. 

Grave misjudgements were made in the past over which inflation figure to use. Now the Bank is being forced to target CPI to dig the country out of a hole. 

But CPI will catch up later in the year with heavy discounting which is likely to put both measures of inflation into negative deflation territory. 

Back in 2003 as chancellor, Brown switched the inflation target from RPI to the more accommodating CPI.

With house prices soaring, it made sense to spin a measure of inflation that excluded property. And that would allow the Bank of England to cut interest rates.

If the Bank had been allowed to target RPI then interest rates would have remained higher.

Either way, the inflation slump leaves the country dangerously close to outright deflation, with reports the Bank of England is to begin the abhorrent and disreputable method of 'printing money' within weeks, as a quick fix. 

Any government which has to resort to 'printing money' is on its beam ends, with the threat of a new bout of inflation always lurking round the corner.

Inflation will rise while the economy continues to stagnate. The toxic mix of high inflation and near-zero growth leads to 'stagflation'. Brown's government will be the laughing stock of the world. 

The country is hopelessly in debt and borrowing is at a record high. But the government still wants to 'print money' to fund a reckless borrowing binge and ludicrous public spending spree. Sooner or later a new government will have to confront the underlying problems in the economy.

The Orange Party believes the route out of this economic mess is easy to see but because of its past record, impossible for this government to follow. 

There's must be an end to reckless borrowing which will saddle people with debt for decades to come. Hugely expensive white elephants, vanity and legacy projects must be scrapped. UK manufacturing, which is the key survival, must be boosted and supported to kick start the economy, with proper jobs, not the New Deal sham. 

A recent C4 documentary, Dispatches, saw Brown's former trade minister, Lord Digby Jones, despair at the dire state of fiddled jobs figures and blatant, totally meaningless jobs propaganda, while the manufacturing heart of the country is being ripped out. 

Jones is in no doubt: "Brown borrows billions to bail out the banks, he is letting manufacturing fall into an abyss." 

While other countries were protecting their manufacturing skills base, here the New Labour project saw the future wealth in creative and emerging technologies - and the City. Oh dear. 

The recession depression will last for a decade or more. A government, any government, has to  take steps now to preserve jobs, skills and factories or, as Jones warns, "we could blight an entire generation with long-term unemployment and the economic balance of Britain will not be sustainable."

Instead, the government flounders and flannels around printing money and borrowing more as its only escape route, trying to make a shiny silk purse out of an old sow's ear.  

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