Macavity Brown's Masterstroke Of Spin

Scotland is the fall-guy in the fall-out of the release of the Lockerbie "bomber" in a masterstroke of spin. The Scottish parliament is recalled to defend its decision. But it's the UK parliament which should be recalled and Macavity Brown called to account.

You have to hand it to the New Labour government. It is pulling-off a masterstroke to get SNP arch-enemy Salmond in the frame to take the flak and smooth the way for the UK to strike oil.

A masterpiece of government spin is managing to turn the tables, blaming the Scots for the dastardly decision to release al-Magrahi on compassionate grounds.

A spectacular wave of American outrage has swept across the Atlantic. The SNP and justice minister MacAskill seem to be under fire from all sides.

But in the US, it is bunkered Brown not Salmond who's in the firing line. Influential website Drudge screams with a large picture of Brown and the question: "YOU DID WHAT?!"

Former US ambassador to the UN, John Bolton, has called for a congressional hearing into how the US government lobbied the UK over the release.

Pictures coming out of Libya splash al-Magrahi whopping it up with Gaddafi and his son.

But if pictures tell a thousand words then it is those of Blair with Gadaffi and the shameful 'deal in the desert' and Brown shaking hands with his new best friend that are the more telling.

The whole squalid charade stinks. Scotland is just a pawn in the diplomatic shenanigans. Someone's playing politics over Lockerbie. In the world of diplomatic spin, Whitehall has pulled a fast one over Holyrood.

Weekend disclosures in the Observer and elsewhere reveal Brown at the centre of detailed discussions with the Libyan dictator and a foreign office endorsing the Scots' decision. But bunkered Brown has steadfastly refused to speak publicly which once again calls into question his leadership.

Mandy too is in the frame, meeting Gaddafi the younger twice in the past four months with a "fleeting" discussion about al-Megrahi while sunning himself in Corfu.

Al-Megrahi's release was "on the table in all commercial, oil and gas agreements" and other dealings with Britain, according to Tripoli.

Misplaced outrage over the release of the Lockerbie Libyan and the wave of political posturing are hiding the shameful dealings in the aftermath of the atrocity.

Lockerbie's dirty secrets are only slowly beginning to unravel. Deals stuck over trade and oil are only part of the plot.

Al-Megrahi’s release has been on the cards for some time in a carefully orchestrated plot to stop a hugely embarrassing appeal, hide the truth over the bombing and to get a hold of Libya's oil and gas. That appeal would have laid bare failings in the original verdict and the manipulation of evidence.

The Orange Party has long held the view the casualty here is justice and the truth about the bombing of Pan Am flight 103. With no appeal, only with a full public inquiry demanded by the bereaved families of some of the victims, would that truth be known. But for the moment that remains a side-issue.

The heat is on many politicians to explain their involvement in the controversial decision to release the Lockerbie "bomber", who was serving a life sentence for the mass murder of 270 people in 1988.

Former US ambassador Bolton said: "I'm appalled by the decision of the Scottish government. But I'm more appalled by the decision of the British government apparently to see commercial advantage for the UK in having this mass murderer go free. We wait to hear from Prime Minister Brown what he thinks."

Bolton may have to wait a while for tight-lipped Brown. Downing Street is sitting tight. In the spinning world, it the wrong Scot who is taking the flak and the wrong parliament which has been recalled.

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Was Glenrothes Fixed For Labour?

The result of the Glenrothes by-election, which shocked many political pundits, has been thrown into doubt after the records of everyone who voted in last year's crucial by-election have gone missing. 

The SNP is calling for an inquiry when it emerged all the marked electoral registers for the by-election, so crucial for Brown's credibility, had been lost by the courts. 

November's by-election result surprised many pundits including the Orange Party, who predicted an SNP win.

Brown had staked everything on Glenrothes but even the prime minister and wife Sarah couldn't stem the tide, with the Scottish Labour Party holding onto the Glenrothes seat in Fife by a slim six thousand plus. 

The SNP were out-gunned and out-manoeuvred, as the government pulled out all the stops to make sure New Labour did not suffer a humiliating defeat, particularly in Brown's back-yard. 

But if Brown couldn't pull it off there, all credibility would be lost. The sight of the first lady of Downing Street campaigning, in what was after all a minor by-election, raised a few eye brows at the time. 

Tricia Marwick, Nationalist MSP for Central Fife, said the blunder over the missing records was "beyond belief" and called for an independent inquiry, adding: "It is almost beyond belief that a by-election which attracted media coverage throughout the UK, which delivered such a surprise result and had a much higher turnout than anticipated, now has no records to show who actually voted."

Meanwhile a question marks hang over around 7,000 requests made for postal votes very shortly before the election. 

Schoolmaster and head of Brown's old school, Lindsay Roy, won the by-election on November 6 last year, polling 19,946 votes. SNP candidate Peter Grant, leader of Fife Council, came second with 13,209 votes, on a turnout of 52.37 per cent, which was higher than expected.

The Orange Party, like many was deeply suspicious over the timing and conduct of the election. 

The date had been fixed for just after the US elections, to bury any likely defeat. Every opportunity was used by BBC 'news' to spin and drop political electioneering into the bulletins, hailing the final result with a "Labour victorious" headline.  

In his victory speech, Roy took every opportunity to bang on about Brown with a speech that looked uncannily like it had been written by Downing Street:

"I pledge my support to the leader of this country ... Someone who has worked very hard on behalf of all of us, not just in Fife, but in Scotland and the UK during these volatile economic times." 

Picture: Successful Scottish Labour Party candidate Lindsay Roy campaigning in the Glenrothes by-election 

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Early Election, Anyone?

Signs the government is preparing the groundwork for an early 2009 general election are increasing. Clinging onto power until the bitter end is no longer an option. Voters now have to suffer a phoney war, with a heady mix of spin and propaganda, as the government clears the decks for a campaign proper.

A stripped down Queen's Speech in two weeks time is the latest sign an early election is on the cards. The forthcoming legislation is a pale shadow of measures Brown announced earlier this year in his Queen's Speech by proxy.

This is being spun as a way to allow ministers to get the message out on the economy. In reality, it allows them time to hit the campaign trail.

Slowly, unpopular legislation which could be a vote loser or cause a commons confrontation are being shelved. 42 days, secret inquests and other U-turns are joined by plans for big brother surveillance laws which are being shelved.

For the government, one of the biggest bugbears for voters and grass roots Labour Party members is Iraq.

The Orange Party has indicated on numerous occasions that troop withdrawal is already fixed to a careful timetable for political advantage, after the UN occupation mandate expires at the end of the year.

Exact dates for a pull-out are already decided by Washington and Baghdad. That too will happen before May/June, removing a major obstacle to the government's legacy of that war. Meanwhile the hopeless and unwinnable mess in Afghanistan is being spun by the MoD with embedded TV reports.

The recent spate of opinion polls should come with a public health warning. Brown is riding on the back of the economic woes reflected in the polls which are getting perilously close to US style push polls to sway public opinion.

With a clever use of weightings they seems to show a Labour/Tory gap narrowing. In reality, they are designed to be seized on by commentators to remove desperation and deliver hope.

It is the economy where the battle is being fought and will continue to do so. But that can only play to the government's advantage for so long.

Brown's currency on this is short-lived. Once the BBC finally admits we are in for a long and painful recession not a cute little downturn, voters will see the government's mismanagement of the economy for what it really is. And for that mess, they'll blame Brown. The risk voters could turn on him is too great.

The legacy could be massive unemployment, reaching 3m by the end of next year. No New Labour government wants to go into an election with another 'Labour isn't working' slogan. An election sooner rather than later is the only option.

For the Tories, the battle ground is England to win back the hearts and minds of voters turned on by New Labour. The government can't afford to wait for the Conservative message to be driven home. The Tories cannot afford to lie low.

In Scotland, the recent Glenrothes by-election was spun as a Labour victory. Then, the Orange Party was one of the few voices pointing out this was nothing of the sort.

The latest round in the battle is all about how to pay for tax cuts and tax breaks, due to be announced in Darling's pre-budget ballot-box bribery report next week. The government is driving home the nonsense message that the country is well placed to weather the storm and can afford more massive borrowing, leading to Brown's Christmas give-away in a pre-election budget. He won't even have that luxury next year.

Traditionally general elections are often fought in the early summer or early autumn. Miss the window of opportunity in April-June and that just leaves autumn 2009 or late spring 2010. This is a political party that wants to cling onto power until the bitter end but that end could be very bitter and too risky.

With a mixture of arrogance and buoyed by his apparent come-back, Brown, like it or not, will have to call an election in April-June, a view shared by the Evening Standard. Unless of course he bottles it again.

But now at the heart is Campbell and deputy prime minister Mandelson. His escape from EU corruption allegations set in motion a massive seed change in the way the government manages its message. Risk is not something spinners and political strategists want to manage. They want control. To manage the media. To manage the polls and public opinion.

And the icing on the cake? A visit to the UK by president Obama around April will allow the government to ride on the back of all the fanfare and hullabaloo.

At the heat lies a US Obama-style election strategy to capture the media, capture public opinion, capture the message and capture the voters. That worked so effectively in the US presidential elections. Brown could pull it off too but he doesn't have much time.

UPDATE: Brown and his spinners have been quick to dampen down speculation of an early election but didn't rule it out, since the Orange Party and others raised it earlier today. Like the Orange Party, The First Post's Westminster Mole is having none of it.

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Brown Just Pulls Off Glenrothes

Brown and wife Sarah couldn't stem the tide in their own backyard, holding onto Glenrothes by a slim six thousand plus. The SNP were out-gunned and out-manoeuvred, as the government pulled out all the stops to make sure New Labour did not suffer a humiliating defeat. 

The by-election result has surprised many punters who predicted an SNP win. 

But a Glenrothes Massacre was not to be. Nor was this a Glencoe Massacre over the Scots, as spinners would now have us believe. But the Dark Lord had been at work.

The date had been fixed for just after the US elections, to bury any defeat. There just wasn't the media frenzy or interest as there had been in previous by-elections.

Downing Street's grip on BBC 'News' was complete. Every opportunity was used to spin and drop a piece of political electioneering into the bulletins. 

Schoolmaster and head of Brown's old school, Lindsay Roy, was no Rob Roy. He took every opportunity to bang on about Brown and follow the line written for him: 

"I pledge my support to the leader of this country ... Someone who has worked very hard on behalf of all of us, not just in Fife, but in Scotland and the UK during these volatile economic times." 

Now where have we heard that last bit before? 

You couldn't keep Brown away. And then there was Sarah. A rare asset.  Many would be persuaded to vote for her whatever their politics. 

The sight of the first lady of Downing Street campaigning, in what was after all a minor by-election, was a unique sight. But it worked. She'd saved Brown's skin once before at the Labour Party conference and she helped do it again. 

And then there's the apparent Brown 'bounce'. There's something very disturbing about a guy who caused the economic disaster facing the country now milking it for all its worth.

BBC 'News' may be gloating with its "Labour victorious" headline, trying to justify biased coverage but looking coldly at the results gives the government little comfort. 

This was in Brown's backyard. If he couldn't pull it off there, all credibility would be lost. 

The swing to the SNP was around 5%. That's a trend still in the right direction for Salmond, in the wrong direction for New Labour. And the LibDems? They are certainly going nowhere. 

It's a sign of the arrogance of the New Labour government that there's speculation now Brown may capitalise on Glenrothes and his real or imagined 'bounce' with a general election. But any 'bounce' will be short lived.  

He still needs to pull a rabbit out of the hat. And his rabbit may be waiting in the wings, in the shape of the long-awaited troop withdrawal from Iraq. 

Politics is all about timing. This was never going to be another Glasgow East. In Glenrothes, Brown and New Labour happened to be in the right place at the right time.

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Will SuperBrown Stop A Glenrothes Massacre?

You wait ages for an election then two come along. Today the government squares up to the SNP in Brown's backyard. Even with a Glenrothes Massacre, don't count on a bye-bye election from Brown. 

The signs from political commentators are the SNP will take this seat from New Labour but what a difference a couple of months make. Even a disastrous defeat of seismic proportions probably wouldn't shift Brown and the gang from their cosy Westminster world. 

Much has changed since the date was set in stone, in the hope a defeat might get buried under all the US election hype.

The dissidents have been dispatched to their Gulags. Mandleson is back in charge with a new department of spin. Brown thinks he's riding high, saving the world from that global 'downturn'/recession and global warming.

A defeat will be a mere distraction for Brown and the government. "By-elections come and go" and he will "just get on with the job". And course there's the line that even in defeat it could have been so much worse, if Superman and Sarah hadn't been out there. 

A victory for New Labour in Glenrothes though and Brown is the come-back kid and the darling of the Westminster New Labour elite. With his propaganda campaign now being waged through the BBC and a new army of spin doctors and advisors, the government can hope to cling on to power.

It's been the Gordon and Sarah show in Glenrothes. Brown didn't break with tradition and actively campaign as prime minister, Blair beat him to it. But now the first lady of Downing Street has got involved in party political campaigning in a by-election. They have been joined by the new hero of the working lass, John Prescott. 

But of course they would only add to the humiliation if New Labour loses heavily. 

It is Salmond and the SNP who desperately need to win, far more than Brown, to deliver another Glaswegian Kiss and reinforce the SNP's credentials, overturning a 10,664 New Labour majority. 

And what about the New Labour candidate? If you think the guy looks like a schoolmaster and a throw back from Tom Brown's schooldays, you'd be right. Only it's old Brown's schooldays, headmaster of his old school. 

At the time of nominations, it seems no-one else was prepared to stick their neck out for New Labour in Glenrothes.

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Brown's Labour Isn't Working

People struggling in the real economy took another battering today as unemployment is set to hit the two million mark by Christmas. There's little hope for anyone on the horizon, apart from the banks, as experts warn the devastating impact is only just beginning.

The number of people "out of work" rose by another 164,000 between June and August, to 1.79 million, according to government figures, the biggest rise since 1991.

This is despite the best efforts of the government to manipulate the easy target of unemployment figures and mask the true number of people not working who do not claim benefit.

Unemployment is now set to climb above two million by Christmas. Some forecasts put it at three million the year after. 

Even New Labour union sympathiser, Brendan Barber from Unite, reckons, "There can be no assumption that the people who are losing their jobs will find it easy to get new ones."

Today's figures come as inflation soared to a record 15 year high of 5.2 per cent, even using the government's discredited CPI index, following sharp rises in fuel and food prices.

After leading the way with the £500 billion bank bail-out and pseudo-nationalisation, experts predict the UK will now "lead the way" into world-wide recession.

Meanwhile, Brown is having praise heaped upon him from money-men around the world, as they rushed to join him and throw two trillion pounds of taxpayers cash and unrealistic borrowing to prop up the world economy, according to the Daily Telegraph. 

But there's little praise in the real world of the real economy, where people are worried sick about losing their jobs, getting work, facing crippling food and fuel bills, while trying to make ends meet struggling with spiralling debt.

Cameron's Conservatives and Salmond's SNP are right to attack the government's past economic record, creating the false boom and then the real gloom of the real economy, which directly affects people's lives. LibDem, Vince Cable, would do well to do likewise or face being labelled Mr "Has Been".

There are few words of comfort from Brown, who said the government would do "all it could to create work and help people maintain their jobs. Unemployment and redundancies are something that we wish to avoid wherever possible." 

Brown should get out into the real economy and the real world a little more often instead of coming out with the same tired old platitudes.

The Saatchi Tory Party 'Labour isn’t working' poster, which helped the downfall of Callaghan and the rise of Thatcher in the 1979 election, came at a time when unemployment stood at a paltry 1.4 million. Those were the days. How times change.

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The Unsinkable Gordon Brown

He's riding along on the crest of a wave. The unsinkable Gordon Brown better make the most of it. The Glenrothes Massacre is just around the corner. Will Vince Cable ride in to save the day for Labour?

Brown has lived to fight another day because of the financial "crisis". He has been saved by the economic mess of his own making.     

Only a few months ago, Brown was more unpopular than Hitler. Now he's saving the country from economic doom, global warming and malaria. How times change. 

One thing is certain. In the cunning world of Brown politics, he has the interest of one thing at heart - his own survival and that of his beloved New Labour Project. 

The economic "crisis" couldn't have come at a better time. One could be forgiven for thinking it was all planned with immaculate timing. 

A true Labour rebellion melted away during the summer. A Blairite challenge evaporated a few weeks ago. Cameron, spitting blood during the Tory Party conference, turned into Cameron soft soaping Brown during PMQs. Cable no longer shoots from the hip. No-one is prepared to put their head above the parapet.

But it won't last. And Brown and his new team of political spin doctors and plumbers know this.

For the moment, all eyes are on the doomed £500 billion bank bail-out, where the devil is in the detail. But even that will be short-lived. Brown needs a few more tricks up his sleeve if he is to survive. 

He's already started, with a regional tour to explain just why he's risking billions of pounds of taxpayers cash to prop up the City. That tour could well end up in his own backyard - Glenrothes.

The sticking point is Darling, a man clearly out of his depth. Likely replacements come from the two Eds. But Balls is too hated, Miliband too young.

Westminster speculation centres on the popular and respected LibDem economist, Vincent Cable, brought in as chancellor - a government of all the people. 

Cable and Brown share a long history together going back to the Labour leadership under John Smith. Time to cast aside Party politics and all that. And time to totally wrong-foot the Tories and SNP.

This has never been about putting the best interests of people first. This is about Brown's survival, New Labour's survival. Trying to out manoeuvre Cameron's Conservatives in England and Salmond's SNP in Scotland. 

A week is a long time in politics - four weeks is a lifetime. Anything other than a New Labour victory in Glenrothes and the unsinkable Gordon Brown will have to go down with his ship.

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Brown Keeps Enemy Close As Mandy Moves In

Arch Blairite, uber plotter, architect of New Labour and all round bad egg, Peter Mandleson, is back in the cabinet after a few years plotting behind Brown's back in Brussels and making sure his man Tony gets the top job of the EU presidency.

As Brown rearranges the Titanic's deck-chairs  with a cabinet shuffle, Mandleson's appointment to a beefed up business job, comes as a shock and much of the media, including Murdoch's Cameron supporting Sun, and the Mandy bashing Daily Mail will have a field day. 

With 'Mandy' Mandleson, it's a case of Brown keeping his friend close but his enemies even closer. But he should watch his back.

There's no love lost between Brown and the Prince, now Lord of Darkness, who was plotting behind the scenes and out in the open, in the Blairite leadership challenges to Brown. Brown even tried to prise Mandy out of his EU commissioner job, only to be told he had no authority to do so. 

To ease the pain of Mandleson and as a sop to the Party, popular left-winger, Jon Cruddas was at one time being spun as tipped for 'promotion'. 

But Cruddas, who wowed delegates at the Labour Party conference and is seen as one of the few true Labour voices that could mount a serious challenge to the New Labour gang, has been kept out of the loop.

It's third time lucky for Mandleson, as he said himself this afternoon but third time unlucky for the rest of us. The disgraced minister was in and out of Blair's government like a yo-yo. He held two cabinet posts before quitting over dodgy dealings and was finally given the plum job as EU trade commissioner.

The feud between Brown and Mandelson goes back years, ever since the odd couple fell out, when Mandelson backed Blair for the Labour leadership in 1994.

Elsewhere, most of the cry babies in the cabinet look to have kept their top jobs after threatening to quit en masse if Brown tried to move them. And Ed Miliband, tipped here as a possible chancellor, is climbing up the greasy pole, heading up a new energy and environment super-department. 

A tinkering at the edges sees a few other insignificant changes of insignificant faces as Brown tries to head off the increasingly powerful challenges from both within his own government and from the Conservatives and SNP.

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The Sun Shines On Cameron

Brown might as well start packing his bags - it's all over bar the shouting and the voting - the Sun has called it for Cameron.

In a fiercely worded editorial, Murdoch's newspaper has finally nailed its Cameron colours to the mast after a conference speech which received (almost) universal acclaim.

The Sun leader chimes with many of the views expressed here yesterday, that Cameron does indeed have a plan to be prime minister and is ready to govern.

But while many still suspect a vote for Cameron is a vote against Brown and New Labour, the Sun is in no doubt that Cameron is the man to lead the nation. 

And it would be the nation - there is no way Cameron's Conservatives can make any inroads in SNP Scotland. 

But the Sun has no such doubts - he's the man and he's ready, willing and able:

"This was a powerful, coherent speech, addressing hard economic questions with sensible solutions ... Far from looking like a “novice”, Mr Cameron delivered the most confident and compelling speech of the political season ... But with this nail-hammering performance, he showed he is more than qualified to give it a try."

You could see it coming. Sun leaders and editorial comment have been getting more and more fiercely critical of Brown and his government.

But this is not about Brown or any of the smug arrogant prats that make up his government. They deserve derision. Any leadership challenge from anyone, except Cruddas, would make no difference to this doomed Party.

The mythical 'man on a bus' is replaced by 'Sun readers' but the outcome is still the same. Anyone who thinks the Sun doesn't matter is either naive or too blinkered with Party loyalties. 

Murdoch was the man who boasted he clinched it for Blair when the newspaper finally came out in support in the 1997 landslide election and Blair left us with his hand of history on our shoulders. Just pray the Sun doesn't make that same mistake again. 

But for many voters in England, with the Sun and the Times, it will be a case of follow my leader.

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