Will Postal Vote Scam Swing Glasgow NE?

A crafty plan to push postal votes could swing today's critical Glasgow NE by-election for New Labour, fuelling fears of a re-run of the alleged sham of a rigged Glenrothes 'victory'. Much rides on the outcome. Team Brown has pulled out all the stops.

A shocking number of voters have registered to cast their ballot by post, more than double since the last general election.

Glasgow city council has confirmed that 6,065 people have registered to vote in today's by-election, up from 2,419 in 2005, according to The Scotsman. That's around one tenth of eligible voters (62,475).

Suspicions over vote-rigging had been raised in the past as New Labour tends to benefit from a surge in postal votes.

The Scotsman has revealed New Labour's strategy to have every possible supporter signed up to a postal vote before the next general election. A "secret" election handbook, even shows the Party's day-to-day election timetable for signing up all possible supporters to vote by post.

The move has sparked concern among election watchdogs, echoing warnings of a judge after Birmingham council elections came under scrutiny in 2005, that postal votes are "wide open to fraud".

New Labour should win fairly easily in one of their safest seats. There are enough dirty tricks flying around Glasgow without another vote rigging scandal raising its ugly head.

But despair times call for desperate measures from a desperate Party building the electoral roll by increasing voter registration and to get crucial postal votes.

Bunkered Brown must think he's on a winner. Confident enough to hit the campaign trail with Steely Sarah by his side which smacks of Glenrothes chicanery. Would Brown and Sarah have joined both campaigns if victory wasn't in the bag?

Last year's crucial Glenrothes by-election result surprised many political pundits who predicted an SNP win, but the Scottish Labour Party held onto the Fife seat by six thousand plus.

Like many, the Orange Party smelt a rigged postal vote rat. A question marks still hang over around 7,000 requests made for postal votes very shortly before the election. But Glenrothes, which had a much higher turnout than anticipated, now has no records to show who actually voted.

The result was thrown into doubt after records of everyone who voted went missing, prompting SNP calls for an inquiry when it emerged all the marked electoral registers had been lost by the courts.

Postal ballots are available on demand, amid widespread concerns over transparency, fraud and exploitation. The system is wide open to abuse.

Now LibDems have begun the painstaking task of recreating the marked register.

All eyes will be on the outcome of today's by-election, triggered after disgraced commons speaker Martin quit in the wake of the MPs' expenses scandal.

The Martin mafia runs deep. Labour is in the blood in a deprived area left to rot. The SNP will find it harder to pull off a second shock result on the scale of Glasgow East when they overturned a 13,000 New Labour majority.

Brown is desperate to hold onto a parliamentary seat in his Scottish homeland after being routed by voters in adjacent Glasgow East. To lose one seat is a misfortune, to lose two a disaster.

Will Gordon get another Glaswegian kiss? Will the SNP suffer another Glenrothes massacre? Who will be the Weakest Link?

Defending a majority of over 10,000 should be easy. To lose such a safe seat would send shock waves round Westminster and shorten the odds on a governable Tory majority at the general election.

Brown has put his neck on the line with a final push for votes writing a personal letter to 4000 households in a last minute blitz on wavering voters. With the massive effort gone into voter registration and getting crucial postal votes, New Labour look set to win a very hollow victory.

But the final result is in the lap of the laptops, the sham of the postal vote to prop up the Party - and the will of the people.

Mid picture: New Labour's Glenrothes by-election victor, Lindsay Roy

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Was Glenrothes Fixed For Labour?

The result of the Glenrothes by-election, which shocked many political pundits, has been thrown into doubt after the records of everyone who voted in last year's crucial by-election have gone missing. 

The SNP is calling for an inquiry when it emerged all the marked electoral registers for the by-election, so crucial for Brown's credibility, had been lost by the courts. 

November's by-election result surprised many pundits including the Orange Party, who predicted an SNP win.

Brown had staked everything on Glenrothes but even the prime minister and wife Sarah couldn't stem the tide, with the Scottish Labour Party holding onto the Glenrothes seat in Fife by a slim six thousand plus. 

The SNP were out-gunned and out-manoeuvred, as the government pulled out all the stops to make sure New Labour did not suffer a humiliating defeat, particularly in Brown's back-yard. 

But if Brown couldn't pull it off there, all credibility would be lost. The sight of the first lady of Downing Street campaigning, in what was after all a minor by-election, raised a few eye brows at the time. 

Tricia Marwick, Nationalist MSP for Central Fife, said the blunder over the missing records was "beyond belief" and called for an independent inquiry, adding: "It is almost beyond belief that a by-election which attracted media coverage throughout the UK, which delivered such a surprise result and had a much higher turnout than anticipated, now has no records to show who actually voted."

Meanwhile a question marks hang over around 7,000 requests made for postal votes very shortly before the election. 

Schoolmaster and head of Brown's old school, Lindsay Roy, won the by-election on November 6 last year, polling 19,946 votes. SNP candidate Peter Grant, leader of Fife Council, came second with 13,209 votes, on a turnout of 52.37 per cent, which was higher than expected.

The Orange Party, like many was deeply suspicious over the timing and conduct of the election. 

The date had been fixed for just after the US elections, to bury any likely defeat. Every opportunity was used by BBC 'news' to spin and drop political electioneering into the bulletins, hailing the final result with a "Labour victorious" headline.  

In his victory speech, Roy took every opportunity to bang on about Brown with a speech that looked uncannily like it had been written by Downing Street:

"I pledge my support to the leader of this country ... Someone who has worked very hard on behalf of all of us, not just in Fife, but in Scotland and the UK during these volatile economic times." 

Picture: Successful Scottish Labour Party candidate Lindsay Roy campaigning in the Glenrothes by-election 

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Early Election, Anyone?

Signs the government is preparing the groundwork for an early 2009 general election are increasing. Clinging onto power until the bitter end is no longer an option. Voters now have to suffer a phoney war, with a heady mix of spin and propaganda, as the government clears the decks for a campaign proper.

A stripped down Queen's Speech in two weeks time is the latest sign an early election is on the cards. The forthcoming legislation is a pale shadow of measures Brown announced earlier this year in his Queen's Speech by proxy.

This is being spun as a way to allow ministers to get the message out on the economy. In reality, it allows them time to hit the campaign trail.

Slowly, unpopular legislation which could be a vote loser or cause a commons confrontation are being shelved. 42 days, secret inquests and other U-turns are joined by plans for big brother surveillance laws which are being shelved.

For the government, one of the biggest bugbears for voters and grass roots Labour Party members is Iraq.

The Orange Party has indicated on numerous occasions that troop withdrawal is already fixed to a careful timetable for political advantage, after the UN occupation mandate expires at the end of the year.

Exact dates for a pull-out are already decided by Washington and Baghdad. That too will happen before May/June, removing a major obstacle to the government's legacy of that war. Meanwhile the hopeless and unwinnable mess in Afghanistan is being spun by the MoD with embedded TV reports.

The recent spate of opinion polls should come with a public health warning. Brown is riding on the back of the economic woes reflected in the polls which are getting perilously close to US style push polls to sway public opinion.

With a clever use of weightings they seems to show a Labour/Tory gap narrowing. In reality, they are designed to be seized on by commentators to remove desperation and deliver hope.

It is the economy where the battle is being fought and will continue to do so. But that can only play to the government's advantage for so long.

Brown's currency on this is short-lived. Once the BBC finally admits we are in for a long and painful recession not a cute little downturn, voters will see the government's mismanagement of the economy for what it really is. And for that mess, they'll blame Brown. The risk voters could turn on him is too great.

The legacy could be massive unemployment, reaching 3m by the end of next year. No New Labour government wants to go into an election with another 'Labour isn't working' slogan. An election sooner rather than later is the only option.

For the Tories, the battle ground is England to win back the hearts and minds of voters turned on by New Labour. The government can't afford to wait for the Conservative message to be driven home. The Tories cannot afford to lie low.

In Scotland, the recent Glenrothes by-election was spun as a Labour victory. Then, the Orange Party was one of the few voices pointing out this was nothing of the sort.

The latest round in the battle is all about how to pay for tax cuts and tax breaks, due to be announced in Darling's pre-budget ballot-box bribery report next week. The government is driving home the nonsense message that the country is well placed to weather the storm and can afford more massive borrowing, leading to Brown's Christmas give-away in a pre-election budget. He won't even have that luxury next year.

Traditionally general elections are often fought in the early summer or early autumn. Miss the window of opportunity in April-June and that just leaves autumn 2009 or late spring 2010. This is a political party that wants to cling onto power until the bitter end but that end could be very bitter and too risky.

With a mixture of arrogance and buoyed by his apparent come-back, Brown, like it or not, will have to call an election in April-June, a view shared by the Evening Standard. Unless of course he bottles it again.

But now at the heart is Campbell and deputy prime minister Mandelson. His escape from EU corruption allegations set in motion a massive seed change in the way the government manages its message. Risk is not something spinners and political strategists want to manage. They want control. To manage the media. To manage the polls and public opinion.

And the icing on the cake? A visit to the UK by president Obama around April will allow the government to ride on the back of all the fanfare and hullabaloo.

At the heat lies a US Obama-style election strategy to capture the media, capture public opinion, capture the message and capture the voters. That worked so effectively in the US presidential elections. Brown could pull it off too but he doesn't have much time.

UPDATE: Brown and his spinners have been quick to dampen down speculation of an early election but didn't rule it out, since the Orange Party and others raised it earlier today. Like the Orange Party, The First Post's Westminster Mole is having none of it.

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Brown Just Pulls Off Glenrothes

Brown and wife Sarah couldn't stem the tide in their own backyard, holding onto Glenrothes by a slim six thousand plus. The SNP were out-gunned and out-manoeuvred, as the government pulled out all the stops to make sure New Labour did not suffer a humiliating defeat. 

The by-election result has surprised many punters who predicted an SNP win. 

But a Glenrothes Massacre was not to be. Nor was this a Glencoe Massacre over the Scots, as spinners would now have us believe. But the Dark Lord had been at work.

The date had been fixed for just after the US elections, to bury any defeat. There just wasn't the media frenzy or interest as there had been in previous by-elections.

Downing Street's grip on BBC 'News' was complete. Every opportunity was used to spin and drop a piece of political electioneering into the bulletins. 

Schoolmaster and head of Brown's old school, Lindsay Roy, was no Rob Roy. He took every opportunity to bang on about Brown and follow the line written for him: 

"I pledge my support to the leader of this country ... Someone who has worked very hard on behalf of all of us, not just in Fife, but in Scotland and the UK during these volatile economic times." 

Now where have we heard that last bit before? 

You couldn't keep Brown away. And then there was Sarah. A rare asset.  Many would be persuaded to vote for her whatever their politics. 

The sight of the first lady of Downing Street campaigning, in what was after all a minor by-election, was a unique sight. But it worked. She'd saved Brown's skin once before at the Labour Party conference and she helped do it again. 

And then there's the apparent Brown 'bounce'. There's something very disturbing about a guy who caused the economic disaster facing the country now milking it for all its worth.

BBC 'News' may be gloating with its "Labour victorious" headline, trying to justify biased coverage but looking coldly at the results gives the government little comfort. 

This was in Brown's backyard. If he couldn't pull it off there, all credibility would be lost. 

The swing to the SNP was around 5%. That's a trend still in the right direction for Salmond, in the wrong direction for New Labour. And the LibDems? They are certainly going nowhere. 

It's a sign of the arrogance of the New Labour government that there's speculation now Brown may capitalise on Glenrothes and his real or imagined 'bounce' with a general election. But any 'bounce' will be short lived.  

He still needs to pull a rabbit out of the hat. And his rabbit may be waiting in the wings, in the shape of the long-awaited troop withdrawal from Iraq. 

Politics is all about timing. This was never going to be another Glasgow East. In Glenrothes, Brown and New Labour happened to be in the right place at the right time.

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Will SuperBrown Stop A Glenrothes Massacre?

You wait ages for an election then two come along. Today the government squares up to the SNP in Brown's backyard. Even with a Glenrothes Massacre, don't count on a bye-bye election from Brown. 

The signs from political commentators are the SNP will take this seat from New Labour but what a difference a couple of months make. Even a disastrous defeat of seismic proportions probably wouldn't shift Brown and the gang from their cosy Westminster world. 

Much has changed since the date was set in stone, in the hope a defeat might get buried under all the US election hype.

The dissidents have been dispatched to their Gulags. Mandleson is back in charge with a new department of spin. Brown thinks he's riding high, saving the world from that global 'downturn'/recession and global warming.

A defeat will be a mere distraction for Brown and the government. "By-elections come and go" and he will "just get on with the job". And course there's the line that even in defeat it could have been so much worse, if Superman and Sarah hadn't been out there. 

A victory for New Labour in Glenrothes though and Brown is the come-back kid and the darling of the Westminster New Labour elite. With his propaganda campaign now being waged through the BBC and a new army of spin doctors and advisors, the government can hope to cling on to power.

It's been the Gordon and Sarah show in Glenrothes. Brown didn't break with tradition and actively campaign as prime minister, Blair beat him to it. But now the first lady of Downing Street has got involved in party political campaigning in a by-election. They have been joined by the new hero of the working lass, John Prescott. 

But of course they would only add to the humiliation if New Labour loses heavily. 

It is Salmond and the SNP who desperately need to win, far more than Brown, to deliver another Glaswegian Kiss and reinforce the SNP's credentials, overturning a 10,664 New Labour majority. 

And what about the New Labour candidate? If you think the guy looks like a schoolmaster and a throw back from Tom Brown's schooldays, you'd be right. Only it's old Brown's schooldays, headmaster of his old school. 

At the time of nominations, it seems no-one else was prepared to stick their neck out for New Labour in Glenrothes.

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Brown Dribbles Drivel Over Pal Obama

The Chosen One had hardly been chosen before Brown eyed the chance for some last minute electioneering. He says they are best pals and everything in the garden is coming up roses. 

While all other politicians fell over themselves to send messages of congratulations to P-elect Obama,  Brown had to go that extra inch. 

According to his personal news organisation, the Brown Broadcasting Corporation, they are the best of pals. 

Brown said: "I know Barack Obama and we share many values."

And just in case you missed the electioneering spin:

"We both have determination to show that government can act to help people fairly through these difficult times facing the global economy."

And there was more. "Mr Brown, who held talks with Mr Obama in London during the summer, added: "The relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom is vital to our prosperity and security."

Is that the same 'special relationship' that took us to war on a lie? It must have been while they were looking at the flowers in the No 10 garden.

Brown needs a dose of reality. Glenrothes is just around the corner. People in Scotland are not fooled by New Labour spin and hype and skewed opinion polls. 

Brown is no Obama - he's not skinny or good looking enough for a start. And Salmond is certainly no McCain. 

Everything may be rosy now in Brown's garden. Until Thursday. 

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The Unsinkable Gordon Brown

He's riding along on the crest of a wave. The unsinkable Gordon Brown better make the most of it. The Glenrothes Massacre is just around the corner. Will Vince Cable ride in to save the day for Labour?

Brown has lived to fight another day because of the financial "crisis". He has been saved by the economic mess of his own making.     

Only a few months ago, Brown was more unpopular than Hitler. Now he's saving the country from economic doom, global warming and malaria. How times change. 

One thing is certain. In the cunning world of Brown politics, he has the interest of one thing at heart - his own survival and that of his beloved New Labour Project. 

The economic "crisis" couldn't have come at a better time. One could be forgiven for thinking it was all planned with immaculate timing. 

A true Labour rebellion melted away during the summer. A Blairite challenge evaporated a few weeks ago. Cameron, spitting blood during the Tory Party conference, turned into Cameron soft soaping Brown during PMQs. Cable no longer shoots from the hip. No-one is prepared to put their head above the parapet.

But it won't last. And Brown and his new team of political spin doctors and plumbers know this.

For the moment, all eyes are on the doomed £500 billion bank bail-out, where the devil is in the detail. But even that will be short-lived. Brown needs a few more tricks up his sleeve if he is to survive. 

He's already started, with a regional tour to explain just why he's risking billions of pounds of taxpayers cash to prop up the City. That tour could well end up in his own backyard - Glenrothes.

The sticking point is Darling, a man clearly out of his depth. Likely replacements come from the two Eds. But Balls is too hated, Miliband too young.

Westminster speculation centres on the popular and respected LibDem economist, Vincent Cable, brought in as chancellor - a government of all the people. 

Cable and Brown share a long history together going back to the Labour leadership under John Smith. Time to cast aside Party politics and all that. And time to totally wrong-foot the Tories and SNP.

This has never been about putting the best interests of people first. This is about Brown's survival, New Labour's survival. Trying to out manoeuvre Cameron's Conservatives in England and Salmond's SNP in Scotland. 

A week is a long time in politics - four weeks is a lifetime. Anything other than a New Labour victory in Glenrothes and the unsinkable Gordon Brown will have to go down with his ship.

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