Will Darling's PBR Dupe Voters?

The general election phoney war is about to hot up with Dreadful Darling's dumbed-down pre-budget report. It's all hands to the pumps of the sinking ship with a blatant package of politicking and posturing. But lurking beneath lies the dreadful state of the public finances. Beleaguered Brown's hopes of hanging on to power rests with the PBR. Will voters be convinced?

The public could be forgiven for thinking it's just business as usual. Nothing of the sort. Tomorrow's pre-budget is all about the election not public finances. Until the struggling Supreme Leader names the day, everything has to be taken with a pinch of salt.

What is needed is a clear, bold message on how to tackle the country's obscene deficit and lay bare the full horror of the country's dire economic mess. Instead a one-off tax on bank bonuses has been mooted along with ubiquitous 'efficiency' savings, which will bring in peanuts for the overall debt burden.

The pre-election budget will be more about shoring up New Labour's collapsing vote. Destined to go down as Darling's last joke on the public, the over optimistic government and past treasury forecasts are set to be exposed.

The key to cutting debt is cutting public spending. But there will be no public spending review until after the election. What the government would actually do is under wraps. Any 'cuts' are set to be hidden in election hot air.

Moody’s 'AAA sovereign monitor', published today, shows the UK hanging onto its triple-A credit rating by the skin of its teeth. The UK entered the crisis in a vulnerable position and is now facing an “inexorable deterioration of debt affordability,” warned Moody.

The UK’s fundamentals are dismal and don’t support the ratings,” said Citigroup's Mark Schofield. “Only if some pretty draconian fiscal measures are in place will the UK keep hold of its AAA rating.”

But Darling has already signalled he will put off much needed measures to slash the biggest budget deficit since the War. Shockingly, the government doesn't have a convincing plan for getting out of its own fiscal mess.

Cameron is right. “If you have a government that doesn’t have the courage to tackle the deficit, that’s the risk of the double dip,” he said. "The country has been the first in and the last out of recession of the major economies because of the policy errors of the last decade or so."

Dreadful Darling is fighting a lonesome, losing battle sorting out the fiscal mess inherited from Brown. Caught between the spinning devils and the deep blue sea of an incompetent treasury, Brown and his sidekick Balls call the economic shots. In the bunker, Mandy and Campbell control the spin.

The PBR package will have been been well-crafted with populist voter appeal and a dash of Brown sauce, aimed at drawing a well worn line between 'fair' New Labour and Cameron's Conservatives only interested in helping 'Tory toffs'.

The Struggling Supreme Leader is playing for short-term gain, paying lip service to cuts, going heavy on measures to strengthen the spinner's narrow dividing line.

Campbell's simplistic class warfare jibes, bashing 'Tory toffs', is a masterclass in exploiting public anxiety about the Tories only out to serve vested interests.

With Tories painted as on the side of a privileged few, Brown is trying to appeal to New Labour's core vote and tap into public anger at the fat cats.

The 'Eton' jibe plays well with New Labour's core voters but not to a savvy electorate. After all, Harman, Darling and Balls were all privately educated at toffee-nosed schools. Blair's own privileged public school education was kept under wraps.

What will stick in the throats of voters is any party which is seen to be on the side of vested interest, be they the political elite, the fats cats, the cronies, City bankers or country landowners. Darling's PBR is part of that plan.

The Tories have already begun the fightback with a debt ticker beamed onto the side of Battersea power station to switch the PBR focus back to that horrendous debt. Something the Orange Party was suggesting way back in February.

New Labour's general election focus will be on Tory voters who deserted the party in droves to follow Blair's hyped up hope and promise of a promised land.

But the politics of false hope lies in tatters. The discredited government is trying to salvage something from a decade of disaster and failure. Oborne has already delivered a damning indictment on a "rudderless economy and a once great Treasury that's now not fit for purpose."

"Darling", he said, "should be forced to own up to the Treasury's consistent failure to grip the nature and scale of the economic recession. This failure is on such a scale that it amounts to negligence."

Brown has been even more misleading. As the only G20 nation in recession, the PM and former chancellor has built up a disreputable reputation for not telling it straight. Anything ministers say will not be believed.

With Malcolm Tucker aka Alastair Campbell now back in the Downing Street fold, a line from The Thick of It springs to mind:

A dying government? Cabinet minister Nicola Murray was in no doubt: "Dying? You bet. Its hair is falling out. It's coughing up blood. And the kids are trying to change the will."

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Brown's 'Sellit & Soon' New Year Sale

Brown is planning his own New Year sale of the last few state assets at a knock-down price, in his bid to claw back cash and head off fears of vote-losing tax increases. 

Ministers are quietly forming a new firm of Sellit and Soon, as they make the dash for cash from the attic. 

Today's ComRes opinion poll for The Independent explodes the myth of a Brown bounce as no more than a blip. In a month, the Tories are up two points at 39 per cent against Labour at 34. But if the Conservatives pledged lower public spending with no tax rises, that rose to a staggering 49 per cent for Tories, 32 per cent for Labour. And that would lead to a Tory landslide.

Time and again New Labour politicians and supporters, obsessed with clinging on to power for as long as they can, quash any talk of an early election. But political strategists suggest time is running out for Brown and the gang. 

Brown's promise to spend more on public services, then raise taxes is hardly an election winner. Pulling troops out of Iraq and riding on the back of Obama's visit won't be enough to sway public opinion. To survive with any chance of winning, the government needs to pull an economic rabbit out of the hat.

That economic miracle swindle was laid bare last week when the sale of the government's remaining share in the Aldermaston Atomic Weapons Establishment (AWE) to an American company was sneaked out without telling parliament, in the hope it would get buried, as MPs broke up for the long Christmas hols. 

But equally disturbing was that the AWE share went for an undisclosed sum. No figure has been made public for the sale of this public asset. 

With the sale of the AWE share, the Orange Party warned this was the thin end of the wedge and other state assets would follow. With the High Street slashing prices up to 60%, in times of economic hardship, these public owned assets too are set be sold off at a bargain price. 

What has become clear is that ministers have formed a Sellit & Soon firm (the Operational Efficiency Programme) as part of the sell-off strategy, with details buried in the Pre-Budget Report (p119). Few choice plums remain. There really isn't much left to sell-off in the recession fire sale. 

The Met Office is a prime target and ripe for a sell-off, followed closely by the Forestry Commission, the Westminster Queen Elizabeth II conference centre, the Covent Garden Market Authority, the Royal Mint, the Tote, buildings owned by British Waterways, British Nuclear Fuel's stake in uranium enrichment company Urenco and the Oil & Pipeline Agency. 

Come the New Year, the Tories will finally get their economic act together with a much simpler and less confusing economic message strategy, with less attacks on Brown's reckless borrowing plans and higher taxes, more on driving home a Tory manifesto promise of a real alternative. 

As the government flounders over the economy, just putting the blame on global this and that has worn thin, Brown as saviour of the world is a joke, which only Mandleson seems to see the funny side. 

Setting up the new firm of Sellit & Soon is the only option, as the government tries in vain to convince voters, struggles to make ends meet and avoid the election suicide note of tax increases. 

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Germans Save World From Brown

Brown won't be saving the world at today's EU summit, instead he'll be forced to save his own skin, as Germany wiped the grin off his face, slamming borrowing Brown's economic plans as 'crass' and 'breathtaking'.

Downing Street's rapid rebuttal claims Germany is 'out of step' but it is Brown who is out of step and out of touch with reality.

Like many, the Orange Party rolled around with mirth as Flash Gordon told the commons he'd saved the world. He's having a laugh ... is he having a laugh? Then the awful truth sank in. Brown actually believes all the crap his lord and master Mandelson is feeding him.

The attack came from an unlikely source, Germany's finance minister and economist, Peer Steinbruck. That cannot be dismissed as a right-wing Conservative rant, because Steinbruck is from the centre left - a social democrat - here he'd fit in nicely with New Labour.

Steinbrück's attack struck a chord. The Orange Party has long believed the prime minister's borrowing binge solution is a sham. More to do with political advantage than economics. A way of digging both Brown and Bush out of the economic hole of their own making.

What did we get in the leaked, pre-budget election Budget? A piddling little stunt to cut VAT and a cunning plan to "toss around billions", causing record-breaking national debt and a burden on the UK economy for a generation.

Steinbruck is in no doubt the government's plans are ineffective and expensive.

"Are you really going to buy a DVD player because it now costs £39.10 instead of £39.90? All this will do is raise Britain's debt to a level that will take a whole generation to work off ...The switch from decades of supply-side politics all the way to a crass Keynesianism is breathtaking."

The Orange Party believes the key to UK prosperity is manufacturing. But for a decade the government has allowed manufacturing to rot, preferring instead to switch to an economy based on the financial institutions of the City. Only perhaps pharmaceuticals have survived in any strength.

Not so in Germany, which is the biggest manufacturer and exporter in the world. A strong manufacturing base creates real jobs and pumps real cash into the economy and helps Germany weather the economic storm.

A reliance on cheap shoddy imports from China made with slave labour in appalling conditions was a high price to pay for false prosperity. Pumping billions into the coffers then going with a begging bowl to the same country to borrow billions at high interest is a topsy-turvy was of running an economy and a country.

Downing Street spinners reckon Germany "was in a minority position and out of step with most other countries on how to deal with the looming recession". But if a powerful manufacturing country like Germany with a sensible finance minister reckons Brown is talking crap - then it is Brown who is 'out of step', not the other way round.

At the heart is the stark economic fact that it was a decade of borrowing which caused the current financial mess.

As Steinbruck said: "When I ask about the origins of the crisis, economists I respect tell me it is the credit-financed growth of recent years and decades. Isn't this the same mistake everyone is suddenly making again, under all the public pressure?"

12pm UPDATE: Government ministers and supporters have been rallying around their beleaguered boss. But even Downing Street's mouthpiece, Nick Robinson (bless) isn't his usual BBC Brown self: "There is, dare I suggest, another perfectly plausible theory. Mr Steinbruck believes what he says and does agree rather more with Mr Cameron than with Mr Brown, even though they come from the opposite ends of the political spectrum." Just what is he trying to say?

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Can Brown Survive Without The Economy?

The government has been pinning its hope of revival on one man who can save the world. But without the relentless spin on the economy, the government is starting to flounder, as time and again a crisis of confidence rears its head. 

Events over the last week or so have brought into sharp focus the old political adage that government's can be brought down by events leading to a lack of confidence and trust.

Time and again opinion polls, reminiscent of US-style push polls placed for political advantage, seem to show the political gap narrowing, as Brown was positioned as the only man capable of saving the economy, the world and global warming on the way.

Then out of the blue came the crunch. 

The pre-leaked pre-budget Budget sham did nothing to enamour the government with voters. That exposed the government track record of relentless borrowing and just borrowing more in these debt ridden days was hard to swallow. No amount of leaks or spin could mask the silly little VAT gimmick for what it was. 

The Baby P case rightly caused public indignation but here Brown totally misjudged the mood of the country, leaving it up to his school secretary to try to recover the moral and political high ground. But at the centre is an incompetent local council department, the failure of Ofsted to uphold standards, failed government child protection policies and no hint at accountability at any level.

Then some fool came along and lit the fuse of Greengate. In one fell swoop that achieved a rare sight in politics with all opposition parties and many true Labour voices united in utter condemnation, while the prime minister maintained his state of denial. 

The Queen's Speech tomorrow signals the start of a new round of parliamentary legislation as ministers desperately try to re-focus on the economy to take the government up to a general election. 

But the rumblings of discontent amongst MPs over Greengate show no sign of abating with talk of a commons rumpus and Cameron and Clegg trying to force a debate with an early day motion of no confidence in speaker Michael Martin.  

The shallowness of the government has been exposed over and over again in recent weeks. Even with the economy to fall back on, it is doubtful no amount of spin can recover confidence. Other events may be just around the corner and now it doesn't take much to tip over the edge. 

Even up to the weekend, Brown's newly installed deputy prime minister, Lord Mandleson, was making hilarious comments, comparing the prime minister to Moses leading his children to the promised land. 

This little ditty from Singin' In The Rain springs to mind. 

Moses supposes his toeses are roses


But Moses supposes erroneously


And Moses, he knowses his toeses aren't roses


As Moses supposes his toeses to be


Maybe the Lord of the Merry Dance could bear that in mind when he next tries to trip the light fantastic.

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The Evil MPs Do Will Live After Them

Government supporting MPs should be wrestling with their conscience as they are set to saddle the country with massive debt for years to come. Today's commons debate had to be prised out of the government after Monday's shambles of an election Budget exposed a shameful record of reckless borrowing and irresponsible spending. 



Today's PBR debate was a chance for MPs to see sense, do the right thing for the country or face a Shakespearean tragedy: "The evil that men do lives after them; the good is oft interred with their bones."



As the smokescreen cleared, the message was loud and clear. The PBR showed up a decade of incompetence and mismanagement with more to come.

Labour MP, Frank Field, was in no doubt about the shambles of the pre-budget report and how it had been leaked and spun around, proclaiming: "The package therefore raised some fundamental questions about the Government’s competence in running a crisis economy."



A dire warning the economic crisis could drag on for a decade was delivered by one of the commons Captain Sensibles, the LibDems Vince Cable. He warned that tougher action is needed, though the Orange Party would beg to differ on his borrowing solutions. 



For the Tories, Cameron and his side-kick Osborne, are in no doubt this budget is a reckless gamble which is going to bankrupt the country. A borrowing binge and a tax bombshell.


Today Woolies and MFI went bust, while politicians wasted valuable commons time pratting around with a leaked treasury memo showing the government thought about a future increase in VAT. 


Left-wing Labour MP, Jon Cruddas, said it just left the Tories splashing around in the shallow end. 



Brown has his eye on votes, not the well-being of the economy. His deputy Lord Mandelson is behind every cunning political move. 


Today's debate on that Budget showed some MPs only bothered about clinging onto their seats, as they decided to take the country down with them.



On Monday, the government has very kindly condescended to a vote on the Christmas VAT election giveaway, to try to wrong-foot the Tories once again. 



Playing party politics with people's lives and livelihoods is not the way to run the economy or the country.

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PBR Debate Wipes Grin Off Brown's Face

The government's farcical pre-leaked, pre-election, pre-budget Budget is to come under full commons scrutiny after the speaker bowed to Tory demands for a full debate in parliament.

Now, no amount of Brown smoke and spin can get them off the hook. The full extent of the economic mess is set to be exposed and MPs will decide if we are to be saddled with a legacy of debt.

With his stock rising, shadow chancellor, George Osborne, repeated his call for a full debate over the "reckless gamble" throughout the day. Now to his credit, speaker, Michael Martin, has agreed to a three hour emergency debate tomorrow.

Yesterday's widely leaked PBR was a farce. Brown and the gang of ministers were grinning like Cheshire Cats, thinking they'd pulled a fast one on both the Tories and the voters.

Tax cuts here, tax rises there was how it eventually played out, to a cunningly spun plan. That was designed to mask the truth in this Budget, which exposed astonishing government incompetence and mismanagement and paved the way for further massive borrowing to pile on the debt.

It was the extent of the borrowing which angered many including the Orange Party who yesterday called for such a commons debate - not out of party politics but out of decency and common sense.

This was a Budget in everything but name. Tax hikes on beer, fags and petrol alone demanded such a parliamentary debate. How on earth can a government commit the people of this country to further unprecedented reckless borrowing and irresponsible spending?

Government borrowing and public debt are going through the roof. Budget deficits around 8 percent of GDP, as the government is set to borrow an unbelievable £100 billion a year. That's on top of the £30 billion a year of taxpayers cash to prop up current debt.

The astonishing scale of damage inflicted on the country was hard to swallow as Darling tried to wriggle his way out of trouble. But the solution was even harder to swallow - borrow more and get the country deeper into debt.

Brown has one thing on his mind - party politics and clinging onto power. This election Budget did nothing to ease pain and suffering with a rat-bag of pointless Christmas giveaways, clawed back by unprecedented borrowing, rises in beer, fags and petrol and tax rises later.

The government's smug arrogance had to be challenged politically. Such budget measures require a full commons debate but also a fresh mandate from the country and that requires a general election.

Both ours and our children's future are at stake. Brown, Darling and the New Labour government have set out their stall but it should be up to voters to decide if we want to be saddled with this debt for years to come. An emergency commons debate is a welcome start.


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Another Fine Mess They've Got Us Into

Staggering government incompetence and mismanagement were laid bare today as 'Laurel and Hardy' were finally forced to admit: "It's a fine mess we've got you into". 

The astonishing scale of damage inflicted on the country was hard to swallow. The answer even harder - borrow more and get the country deeper into debt. 

If a government could be charged with criminal negligence for the economic mess, Brown and Darling today set out the case for the prosecution. 

Government borrowing is quite unbelievable - more than double to £78 billion this year and £118 billion next year, as Darling slashed economic growth forecasts for next year from 2.75% to a record-breaking  minus 0.75% to minus 1.25%.

Even a fool looking at the figures would ask the obvious. Why didn't the government balance the books in the boom years? Why go into recession with such high levels of borrowing when even that fool could see it coming a mile off?  

£37 billion of taxpayer cash is being used to prop up the banks, £33 billion for PFI. Borrowing is set to be more than even the Conservatives dared in the 1990s and more than under the last true Labour government of the 1970s.

The government had to come clean sooner or later. Brown is after votes. Battle lines are now drawn as the pre-leaked, pre-election, pre-budget Budget from Santa's Little Helper had little to do with economics and everything to do with posturing politics. A General Election manifesto in all but name. 

This was a bankrupt Budget from a bankrupt government for a bankrupt country. Santa's Little Helper did nothing to ease pain and suffering with a calculated nest of pointless Christmas giveaways clawed back by borrowing, rises in beer, fags and petrol and tax rises later. 

Yesterday's leaked paltry VAT cut was a sop to woo voters. A few bob off the price in the shops is pointless and will do nothing to help the economy or help people struggling with debt.

Rises in income tax for high earners, which only kick in after the next election, are insignificant. Nothing is being done about disgusting tax loopholes and tax advantages enjoyed by the very rich.

The leaks were testing the water, leaking to Brown's BBC, changing the message strategy for political advantage, in a desperate effort to grab headlines. Those shameless stunts won't come cheap.

Shadow chancellor, George Osborne, in what many agree was a magnificent commons rebuttal, accused Darling of "bringing this country to the verge of bankruptcy" by doubling the national debt, echoing the well-planned Tory slogan: "However Gordon wraps it up, it's still a tax bombshell".

The chancellor had the bare-faced cheek to tell the commons and the country it would be "perverse and damaging" to stick to government borrowing rules in the current crisis - so they would be temporarily suspended.

That arrogant statement in itself must be challenged politically and bring into focus what the Orange Party has said all along as this debacle unfurled. Such measures require a full commons debate and a fresh mandate and that requires a general election. 

Brown, Darling and the New Labour government have set out their stall but it should be up to voters to decide if they want to buy into this. 

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Election Budget From Santa's Little Helper

Santa's little helper is set to deliver a crucial pre-election Budget as Brown's chancellor unveils an election manifesto in the battle for the economic high ground. The centrepiece, a widely-leaked silly little VAT sop to woo voters and tax rises later for high earners, will do nothing to help the economy, as the country plunges deeper into debt and recession.

Darling's pre-leaked, pre-election, pre-budget report has little to do with economics and everything to do with posturing politics. 

As Bruce Anderson observes in today's Independent - Brown is not after economic recovery, he's after votes. 

Designed to capture headlines, it is probably the government's last big shot before a snap election in Spring 2009 or later.

The Orange Party is in no doubt that further interest rate cuts are vital and, coupled with affordable tax cuts and tax breaks, is the only way out of this mess of the government's making. 

But that should never come from a foolish and misguided idea of borrowing more. The boom years were created on the back of debt in the public purse and private pocket. To continue is a false, foolish economy. 

Today Darling has some explaining to do. Why is next year's spending and income gap around £100 billion? Why is there no pot of gold left in the kitty? Why do the IOUs pile up? Why has the government squandered billions? Where's the drive on government waste? Whatever happened to prudence?

Yesterday's leaked paltry VAT cut is a sop to woo voters. A few bob off the price in the shops is pointless and will do nothing to help the economy or help people struggling with debt.

Rises in income tax for high earners, which only kick in after the next election, are insignificant. As left-wing Labour MP, John McDonnell, reportedly pointed out it's "hardly a revolution". Nothing is being done about disgusting tax loopholes and tax advantages enjoyed by the very rich.

Clearly the government couldn't afford to cut direct taxes now, so instead it's offering a temporary VAT cut and even that comes with the pain of tax rises later. 

Brown is borrowing billions for a cheap election bribery stunt. We get the gifts and then have to pay for them. Christmas giveaways are not the answer for a country riddled with debt and that's at the root of the current crisis. 

Brown and New Labour were the architects of the impending economic disaster and saddled the country with reckless levels of public debt and state borrowing. 

Pre-election giveaways will be there - fuel allowances, treats for the poor, some relief for small businesses. Today's measures are nothing short of election bribery. A shameless stunt which won't come cheap.

Brown will have to be forced to announce he needs a fresh mandate for his reckless political economic package. The wheels have been set in motion and the decks cleared for an election. 

Today's budget bribery is a general election manifesto, the latest salvo in the phoney war before a mandate and the campaign proper.

Much depends on how Darling's pre-election budget giveaway is received and perceived by voters, the media headlines and how the Tories play this one, using the election slogan: "However Gordon wraps it up, it's still a tax bombshell".

The Orange Party has made repeated calls for a 'Captain Sensible' approach. That could come from the Conservative's Cameron and Osborne, the LibDem economist, Vince Cable or the now castrated voice of the true Labour Left. 

There is no easy way out. Massive government borrowing will only make things worse. But opposing the government's borrowing plans at a time of crisis, leaves opposition Parties wide open to attack.

Brown's track record to date has been anything but honest. In collusion with BBC News, their behaviour at every twist and turn has been shameful. 

Thanks but no thanks to Brown as chancellor and now prime minister, the country is particularly badly placed to cope with the recession. 

The culture of boom and good times riding on the back of debt, runs deep and is difficult to shift. It will be a long uphill struggle to drive home that message from wherever it comes.

In times of crisis, people look to government. But scratch the surface and you get pointless public sector jobs, a misplaced public spending spree and silly Christmas giveaways. All funded by debt which has to be paid off some time later. None address issues of government waste and squandered public spending. 

Honest Joe doesn't always win general elections. But honesty is the best economic and political policy. Being honest with the electorate and offering sober, sensible solutions, however harsh and a clear idea how they will be paid for, which the whole country can get behind, could eventually pay off. 

Brown has been quick to accuse others of playing party politics. Party politics is what today's pre-election bribery Budget is all about.

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