Saturday, February 07, 2009

LibDems Suck Last Life Out Of New Labour

The death knell for the government has been sounded with the latest opinion poll showing voters deserting in droves, scrabbling around for alternatives. 

With vultures circling overhead, LibDems are picking up a few crumbs of comfort, as Brown and his minister's credibility sink to an all-time low.

On the surface, the new ICM poll in tomorrow's Sunday Telegraph shows a boost for the LibDems - up 6% at 22% - and puts New Labour down 4 on 28 per cent, only six points behind, while the Tories are down 4 to still a whopping 40 per cent.

But it is the government's handling of the economy where the survey paints its most gloomy picture, showing New Labour's support falling to its lowest ebb since Brown's well-managed and well-spun bank bail-out bounce last autumn.

What is unclear, however, is how the questions were framed and the weighting used, as ICM uses a methodology which generally favours the LibDems anyway. A similar poll for the Guardian recently had the LibDems on a silly 16%.

The Orange Party has noted New Labour's demise for a long time as voters, once enticed by New Labour Promised Land, started to shop around for an alternative, with Cameron's Conservatives slowly positioning themselves from the Party that's 'electable' to a government-in-waiting. 

After more than a decade in power that switch to the Tories can only go so far and with no SNP alternative as in Glasgow East, English voters will look to the LibDems as the Tories bottom out, trying to work out which suits them best. 

That is the key to how the general election will be fought. 

Within the Party too, the battle is between the political strategists who argue timing and when best to strike and government ministers who through a mixture of arrogance and self-interest try to cling onto power for as long as they can, in the vain hope that things will get better. They won't. 

At home, the recent refinery workers protest and the rise of Mandelson was the final nail in the coffin for a Party still conning voters that it has any semblance of a 'Labour' Party. Die-hard Labour supporters feel betrayed, with many going on record that they'll switch to the Tories. 

Abroad the cracks are starting to appear, as Brown and his plan to save the world are finally exposed as not all they're cracked up to be. 

Downing Street looked pathetic as spinners tried to play-down the savage Sarkozi attack on Brown's "economic mistakes" coming only a day after Brown was completely upstaged by old foe Blair and his quick prayer with best buddy Obama.  

Clarkson's Australian outburst centred on wet and contrived protests over "the one-eyed Scottish idiot" jibe. No one protested about the rest of his outburst - that Brown has been lying over the economy. 

The warnings signs are there, the question is whether Brown and the tightly knit cabal of cronies will heed them. 

Brown famously bottled one general election. He could have gone again, riding on the back of the cleverly managed spin of the "Brown bounce" but he didn't. 

Now the Party is at a crossroads and faces a stark choice. Either accept the election is lost and give voters what they want now, a chance to elect a new government or cling on to power and face extinction. 

What is still unclear is whether it will be the men in grey suits or white coats who will come and take away a deluded Brown or whether the Labour Party itself will continue to sit back and watch Brown destroy the Party and the country. 

The Orange Party still believes the Party has no choice but to eventually see sense, ditch Brown and call an election, sooner rather than later. Not least to try to salvage a few marginal seats. 

The only question remaining is whether it will be the sad, tired old New Labour, or Clegg's blustering LibDems who will form Her Majesty's Official Opposition.

1 comment:

John M Ward said...

This poll definitely looks odd, as the LibDem upsurge is so significant as to be unlikely to be anywhere near accurate.

I ahve been logging all the poll results for over a year now, and have all the headline figures in a spreadsheet for each, from which a graph is generated.

From last year's graph, and the eight polls preceding this ICM one during the start of 2009, the LibDem score ought to be lower, especially as there has been no major event or policy announcement to change that party's otherwise quite consistent performance.

As far as calling an election is concerned, I have been writing exactly the same as you for some time, but I have also written about the considerations that make it unlikely.

The outcome of delaying that next election is likely to be a landslide victory for the Conservatives, rather than just a modest working majority (which is the most likely outcome on present indications) but The Great Plan isn't fully in place yet, and that cannot be jeopardised in Gordon Brown's eyes and those of those who pull his strings (mainly Common Purpose and the Fabians).